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Saturday 15 October 2016, 17:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
3–2
HT 2–1
73% 17% 10%
Home win
73.2%
Draw
17.0%
Away win
9.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 73.2% 1.37
Draw 17.0% 5.89
Swansea 9.9% 10.12

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.8% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.2% 23.72
Over 1.5 84.4% 1.19
Under 1.5 15.6% 6.39
Over 2.5 63.7% 1.57
Under 2.5 36.3% 2.75
Over 3.5 41.5% 2.41
Under 3.5 58.5% 1.71
Over 4.5 23.4% 4.28
Under 4.5 76.6% 1.31

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.4% 1.95
No 48.6% 2.06

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 90.1% 1.11
Arsenal / Swansea 83.0% 1.20
Draw / Swansea 26.8% 3.72

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.2
2.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
8.8
8.0
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
11.4
9.3
3.8
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.4
7.7
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
5.8
4.7
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
2.9
2.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.