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Tuesday 30 January 2018, 21:45 Liberty Stadium Full time
3–1
HT 1–1
18% 23% 58%
Home win
18.4%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
58.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 18.4% 5.43
Draw 23.3% 4.29
Arsenal 58.3% 1.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.8% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.2% 16.06
Over 1.5 78.9% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.1% 4.74
Over 2.5 55.0% 1.82
Under 2.5 45.0% 2.22
Over 3.5 32.6% 3.06
Under 3.5 67.4% 1.48
Over 4.5 16.5% 6.05
Under 4.5 83.5% 1.20

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.8% 1.86
No 46.2% 2.16

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 41.7% 2.40
Swansea / Arsenal 76.7% 1.30
Draw / Arsenal 81.6% 1.23

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2
10.0
10.1
6.4
3.1
1.2
1
4.9
11.1
9.9
6.3
3.0
1.1
2
2.7
5.1
4.9
3.1
1.5
0.6
3
0.9
1.7
1.6
1.0
0.5
0.2
4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.