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Saturday 4 February 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
2–1
HT 2–0
42% 28% 30%
Home win
41.9%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
29.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 41.9% 2.39
Draw 28.2% 3.55
Burnley 29.9% 3.34

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.1% 1.10
Under 0.5 8.9% 11.27
Over 1.5 72.3% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.7% 3.61
Over 2.5 45.9% 2.18
Under 2.5 54.1% 1.85
Over 3.5 24.5% 4.08
Under 3.5 75.5% 1.32
Over 4.5 11.0% 9.06
Under 4.5 89.0% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.4% 1.94
No 48.6% 2.06

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 70.1% 1.43
Watford / Burnley 71.8% 1.39
Draw / Burnley 58.1% 1.72

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.9
8.4
5.2
1.9
0.5
0.1
1
10.5
13.4
7.2
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.8
8.8
4.9
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
3.6
4.0
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.1
4
1.2
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.