Saturday 4 February 2017, 17:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
42%
28%
30%
Home win
41.9%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
29.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.55 | — | — |
| Burnley | 29.9% | 3.34 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.9% | 11.27 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.5% | 4.08 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.0% | 9.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| No | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Watford / Burnley | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.9
|
8.4
|
5.2
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
10.5
|
13.4
|
7.2
|
2.7
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.8
|
8.8
|
4.9
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.6
|
4.0
|
2.3
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.2
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Watford
1-2
Burnley
Feb 2022
Burnley
0-0
Watford
Jun 2020
Burnley
1-0
Watford
Nov 2019
Watford
0-3
Burnley
Jan 2019
Watford
0-0
Burnley
Aug 2018
Burnley
1-3
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.