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Tuesday 3 January 2017, 22:00 bet365 Stadium Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
50% 25% 25%
Home win
49.7%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
25.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City 49.7% 2.01
Draw 25.1% 3.99
Watford 25.2% 3.97

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.8% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.2% 16.25
Over 1.5 79.3% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.7% 4.82
Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80
Under 2.5 44.5% 2.25
Over 3.5 33.1% 3.02
Under 3.5 66.9% 1.49
Over 4.5 16.9% 5.93
Under 4.5 83.1% 1.20

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.5% 1.74
No 42.5% 2.35

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City / Draw 74.8% 1.34
Stoke City / Watford 74.9% 1.33
Draw / Watford 50.3% 1.99

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2
5.8
3.8
1.5
0.4
0.1
1
8.8
11.8
6.5
2.6
0.7
0.2
2
8.2
9.6
5.6
2.2
0.6
0.2
3
4.7
5.6
3.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
4
2.0
2.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
5
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.