Tuesday 3 January 2017, 22:00
bet365 Stadium
Full time
50%
25%
25%
Home win
49.7%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
25.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.1% | 3.99 | — | — |
| Watford | 25.2% | 3.97 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.8% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.2% | 16.25 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.82 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 33.1% | 3.02 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 16.9% | 5.93 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| No | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City / Draw | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Stoke City / Watford | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.2
|
5.8
|
3.8
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
8.8
|
11.8
|
6.5
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
8.2
|
9.6
|
5.6
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
4.7
|
5.6
|
3.3
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.0
|
2.4
|
1.4
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.