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Saturday 17 December 2016, 17:00 Stadium of Light Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
39% 28% 33%
Home win
39.3%
Draw
27.7%
Away win
33.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sunderland 39.3% 2.55
Draw 27.7% 3.62
Watford 33.1% 3.02

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.0% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.0% 12.55
Over 1.5 74.5% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.5% 3.93
Over 2.5 48.8% 2.05
Under 2.5 51.2% 1.95
Over 3.5 27.0% 3.70
Under 3.5 73.0% 1.37
Over 4.5 12.7% 7.90
Under 4.5 87.3% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.1% 1.85
No 45.9% 2.18

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sunderland / Draw 66.9% 1.49
Sunderland / Watford 72.3% 1.38
Draw / Watford 60.7% 1.65

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.0
8.3
5.6
2.3
0.7
0.2
1
9.2
13.2
7.8
3.2
1.0
0.3
2
6.9
8.6
5.4
2.2
0.7
0.2
3
3.2
3.9
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
1.1
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.