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Saturday 1 April 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
52% 26% 22%
Home win
52.3%
Draw
25.9%
Away win
21.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 52.3% 1.91
Draw 25.9% 3.86
Sunderland 21.7% 4.60

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.1% 1.09
Under 0.5 7.9% 12.66
Over 1.5 74.6% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.4% 3.93
Over 2.5 48.9% 2.04
Under 2.5 51.1% 1.96
Over 3.5 27.1% 3.69
Under 3.5 72.9% 1.37
Over 4.5 12.7% 7.87
Under 4.5 87.3% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.2% 1.95
No 48.8% 2.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 78.3% 1.28
Watford / Sunderland 74.1% 1.35
Draw / Sunderland 47.7% 2.10

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.9
6.4
3.5
1.1
0.3
0.1
1
11.2
12.4
5.7
1.9
0.5
0.1
2
9.8
9.6
4.7
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
5.4
5.3
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
2.2
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.