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Monday 26 December 2016, 14:30 Vicarage Road Full time
47% 22% 30%
Home win
47.4%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
30.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 47.4% 2.11
Draw 22.2% 4.50
Crystal Palace 30.3% 3.30

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.0% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.0% 32.93
Over 1.5 88.7% 1.13
Under 1.5 11.3% 8.83
Over 2.5 71.1% 1.41
Under 2.5 28.9% 3.46
Over 3.5 50.1% 2.00
Under 3.5 49.9% 2.00
Over 4.5 30.8% 3.24
Under 4.5 69.2% 1.45

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 70.5% 1.42
No 29.5% 3.39

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 69.7% 1.44
Watford / Crystal Palace 77.8% 1.29
Draw / Crystal Palace 52.6% 1.90

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.0
3.6
3.3
1.8
0.7
0.2
1
4.7
8.9
6.9
3.7
1.5
0.5
2
5.3
8.7
7.0
3.8
1.5
0.5
3
3.6
5.9
4.8
2.6
1.1
0.3
4
1.9
3.0
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.2
5
0.8
1.2
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.