Skip to content
Saturday 14 January 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
38% 32% 31%
Home win
37.7%
Draw
31.7%
Away win
30.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 37.7% 2.65
Draw 31.7% 3.15
Middlesbrough 30.6% 3.27

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.6% 1.15
Under 0.5 13.4% 7.47
Over 1.5 62.2% 1.61
Under 1.5 37.8% 2.64
Over 2.5 34.3% 2.91
Under 2.5 65.7% 1.52
Over 3.5 15.6% 6.39
Under 3.5 84.4% 1.19
Over 4.5 6.0% 16.79
Under 4.5 94.0% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 42.3% 2.36
No 57.7% 1.73

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 69.4% 1.44
Watford / Middlesbrough 68.3% 1.46
Draw / Middlesbrough 62.3% 1.60

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.4
11.4
5.9
1.9
0.5
0.1
1
13.1
14.3
6.5
2.1
0.5
0.1
2
7.7
7.4
3.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
2.8
2.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.