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Saturday 27 August 2016, 17:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
3–0
HT 2–0
74% 10% 15%
Home win
74.5%
Draw
10.3%
Away win
15.3%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 74.5% 1.34
Draw 10.3% 9.73
Burnley 15.3% 6.55

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.9% 1.00
Under 0.5 0.1% 1,960.78
Over 1.5 99.8% 1.00
Under 1.5 0.2% 458.72
Over 2.5 98.9% 1.01
Under 2.5 1.1% 88.11
Over 3.5 96.4% 1.04
Under 3.5 3.6% 27.79
Over 4.5 91.3% 1.10
Under 4.5 8.7% 11.50

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 94.2% 1.06
No 5.8% 17.15

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 84.7% 1.18
Chelsea / Burnley 89.7% 1.11
Draw / Burnley 25.5% 3.92

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
1
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
2
0.4
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.1
0.7
3
0.7
1.9
2.8
2.8
2.0
1.2
4
0.9
2.6
3.8
3.7
2.7
1.6
5
1.0
2.8
4.1
4.0
2.9
1.7
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.