Skip to content
Monday 26 September 2016, 22:00 Turf Moor Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
22% 25% 52%
Home win
22.4%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
52.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley 22.4% 4.47
Draw 25.2% 3.97
Watford 52.4% 1.91

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.0% 1.07
Under 0.5 7.0% 14.37
Over 1.5 77.0% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.0% 4.35
Over 2.5 52.3% 1.91
Under 2.5 47.7% 2.10
Over 3.5 30.1% 3.32
Under 3.5 69.9% 1.43
Over 4.5 14.7% 6.79
Under 4.5 85.3% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.0% 1.85
No 46.0% 2.17

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley / Draw 47.6% 2.10
Burnley / Watford 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Watford 77.6% 1.29

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.0
10.1
9.3
5.3
2.3
0.8
1
5.9
12.0
9.7
5.6
2.4
0.8
2
3.5
5.9
5.1
2.9
1.3
0.4
3
1.2
2.1
1.8
1.0
0.4
0.2
4
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.