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Sunday 18 December 2016, 18:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
47% 22% 31%
Home win
46.5%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
31.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 46.5% 2.15
Draw 22.0% 4.54
Arsenal 31.4% 3.18

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.2% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.8% 35.50
Over 1.5 89.4% 1.12
Under 1.5 10.6% 9.44
Over 2.5 72.5% 1.38
Under 2.5 27.5% 3.63
Over 3.5 51.8% 1.93
Under 3.5 48.2% 2.08
Over 4.5 32.4% 3.08
Under 4.5 67.6% 1.48

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 71.7% 1.39
No 28.3% 3.54

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 68.6% 1.46
Manchester City / Arsenal 78.0% 1.28
Draw / Arsenal 53.5% 1.87

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.8
3.4
3.3
1.9
0.8
0.3
1
4.3
8.6
6.9
3.9
1.6
0.6
2
5.0
8.4
7.1
4.0
1.7
0.6
3
3.4
5.8
4.9
2.8
1.2
0.4
4
1.8
3.0
2.5
1.4
0.6
0.2
5
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.