Saturday 30 September 2017, 17:00
bet365 Stadium
Full time
39%
32%
29%
Home win
38.7%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
29.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 38.7% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.9% | 3.13 | — | — |
| Southampton | 29.4% | 3.40 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.8% | 7.25 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 38.7% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 33.5% | 2.99 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 15.0% | 6.65 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.6% | 17.70 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
| No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City / Draw | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Stoke City / Southampton | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.8
|
11.3
|
5.6
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
13.6
|
14.2
|
6.3
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.0
|
7.4
|
3.5
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.0
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2018
Southampton
0-0
Stoke City
May 2017
Southampton
0-1
Stoke City
Dec 2016
Stoke City
0-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.