Skip to content
Saturday 23 September 2017, 17:00 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
19% 31% 50%
Home win
19.1%
Draw
31.4%
Away win
49.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 19.1% 5.25
Draw 31.4% 3.18
Manchester United 49.5% 2.02

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 84.3% 1.19
Under 0.5 15.7% 6.37
Over 1.5 57.3% 1.74
Under 1.5 42.7% 2.34
Over 2.5 29.6% 3.38
Under 2.5 70.4% 1.42
Over 3.5 12.5% 7.99
Under 3.5 87.5% 1.14
Over 4.5 4.4% 22.71
Under 4.5 95.6% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 35.1% 2.85
No 64.9% 1.54

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 50.5% 1.98
Southampton / Manchester United 68.6% 1.46
Draw / Manchester United 80.9% 1.24

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.7
17.8
11.5
4.7
1.5
0.4
1
9.1
13.0
7.6
3.1
1.0
0.2
2
3.3
4.0
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
3
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.