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Sunday 21 May 2017, 17:00 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
49% 29% 22%
Home win
48.9%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
22.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 48.9% 2.05
Draw 28.8% 3.47
Stoke City 22.3% 4.48

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.8% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.2% 8.95
Over 1.5 66.8% 1.50
Under 1.5 33.2% 3.01
Over 2.5 39.4% 2.54
Under 2.5 60.6% 1.65
Over 3.5 19.3% 5.18
Under 3.5 80.7% 1.24
Over 4.5 7.9% 12.61
Under 4.5 92.1% 1.09

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 44.2% 2.26
No 55.8% 1.79

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 77.7% 1.29
Southampton / Stoke City 71.2% 1.40
Draw / Stoke City 51.1% 1.96

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.2
8.2
3.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
1
13.8
13.3
5.4
1.5
0.3
0.1
2
10.2
8.8
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
4.8
4.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
1.7
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.