Sunday 21 May 2017, 17:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
49%
29%
22%
Home win
48.9%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
22.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.8% | 3.47 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 22.3% | 4.48 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.2% | 8.95 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.3% | 5.18 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.9% | 12.61 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Southampton / Stoke City | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.2
|
8.2
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
13.8
|
13.3
|
5.4
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.2
|
8.8
|
3.8
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
4.8
|
4.1
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.7
|
1.4
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2018
Southampton
0-0
Stoke City
Sep 2017
Stoke City
2-1
Southampton
Dec 2016
Stoke City
0-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.