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Wednesday 10 May 2017, 21:45 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
33% 27% 41%
Home win
32.9%
Draw
26.6%
Away win
40.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 32.9% 3.04
Draw 26.6% 3.76
Arsenal 40.5% 2.47

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.2% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.8% 14.73
Over 1.5 77.6% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.4% 4.47
Over 2.5 53.1% 1.88
Under 2.5 46.9% 2.13
Over 3.5 30.8% 3.24
Under 3.5 69.2% 1.45
Over 4.5 15.2% 6.56
Under 4.5 84.8% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.3% 1.74
No 42.7% 2.34

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 59.5% 1.68
Southampton / Arsenal 73.4% 1.36
Draw / Arsenal 67.1% 1.49

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.8
8.3
6.7
3.3
1.2
0.4
1
7.3
12.6
8.8
4.4
1.6
0.5
2
5.3
7.8
5.8
2.9
1.1
0.3
3
2.3
3.4
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.1
4
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.