Wednesday 10 May 2017, 21:45
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
33%
27%
41%
Home win
32.9%
Draw
26.6%
Away win
40.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.76 | — | — |
| Arsenal | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.8% | 14.73 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.47 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.2% | 6.56 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| No | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Southampton / Arsenal | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw / Arsenal | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.8
|
8.3
|
6.7
|
3.3
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
7.3
|
12.6
|
8.8
|
4.4
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
5.3
|
7.8
|
5.8
|
2.9
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
2.3
|
3.4
|
2.5
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.8
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2025
Southampton
1-2
Arsenal
Oct 2024
Arsenal
3-1
Southampton
Apr 2023
Arsenal
3-3
Southampton
Oct 2022
Southampton
1-1
Arsenal
Apr 2022
Southampton
1-0
Arsenal
Dec 2021
Arsenal
3-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.