Tuesday 25 April 2017, 21:45
Stamford Bridge
Full time
70%
20%
10%
Home win
69.8%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
10.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Draw | 20.0% | 5.01 | — | — |
| Southampton | 10.3% | 9.75 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.9% | 14.48 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.5% | 6.89 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Southampton | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 30.2% | 3.31 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.9
|
3.7
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.7
|
9.4
|
3.0
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.8
|
9.3
|
3.1
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.6
|
6.4
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.0
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.1
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Chelsea
4-0
Southampton
Dec 2024
Southampton
1-5
Chelsea
Feb 2023
Chelsea
0-1
Southampton
Aug 2022
Southampton
2-1
Chelsea
Apr 2022
Southampton
0-6
Chelsea
Oct 2021
Chelsea
3-1
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.