Saturday 1 April 2017, 19:30
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
53%
24%
23%
Home win
53.1%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
23.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.7% | 4.22 | — | — |
| Bournemouth | 23.2% | 4.31 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.8% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.2% | 19.08 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.49 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 19.7% | 5.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| No | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Southampton / Bournemouth | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Draw / Bournemouth | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.2
|
4.9
|
3.3
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
8.1
|
11.0
|
6.1
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
8.2
|
9.8
|
5.8
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
5.2
|
6.2
|
3.7
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.4
|
2.9
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Southampton
1-3
Bournemouth
Sep 2024
Bournemouth
3-1
Southampton
Apr 2023
Southampton
0-1
Bournemouth
Oct 2022
Bournemouth
0-1
Southampton
Jul 2020
Bournemouth
0-2
Southampton
Sep 2019
Southampton
1-3
Bournemouth
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.