Wednesday 5 April 2017, 22:00
Stamford Bridge
Full time
55%
25%
20%
Home win
55.3%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
20.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | — | — |
| Manchester City | 20.0% | 5.01 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.8% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.2% | 13.94 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.2% | 7.04 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| No | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Manchester City | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw / Manchester City | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.2
|
5.6
|
3.1
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.8
|
11.8
|
5.4
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.1
|
9.8
|
4.8
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.9
|
5.8
|
2.8
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.6
|
2.5
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Chelsea
0-3
Manchester City
Jan 2026
Manchester City
1-1
Chelsea
Jan 2025
Manchester City
3-1
Chelsea
Aug 2024
Chelsea
0-2
Manchester City
Feb 2024
Manchester City
1-1
Chelsea
Nov 2023
Chelsea
4-4
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.