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Wednesday 5 April 2017, 22:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
55% 25% 20%
Home win
55.3%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
20.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 55.3% 1.81
Draw 24.7% 4.04
Manchester City 20.0% 5.01

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.2% 13.94
Over 1.5 76.4% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.6% 4.23
Over 2.5 51.4% 1.94
Under 2.5 48.6% 2.06
Over 3.5 29.3% 3.41
Under 3.5 70.7% 1.41
Over 4.5 14.2% 7.04
Under 4.5 85.8% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.1% 1.92
No 47.9% 2.09

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 80.0% 1.25
Chelsea / Manchester City 75.3% 1.33
Draw / Manchester City 44.7% 2.24

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.2
5.6
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
10.8
11.8
5.4
1.7
0.4
0.1
2
10.1
9.8
4.8
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
5.9
5.8
2.8
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
2.6
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.