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Sunday 2 April 2017, 18:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
45% 25% 31%
Home win
44.8%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
30.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 44.8% 2.23
Draw 24.5% 4.07
Manchester City 30.6% 3.27

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.41
Over 1.5 82.9% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.1% 5.85
Over 2.5 61.0% 1.64
Under 2.5 39.0% 2.57
Over 3.5 38.7% 2.58
Under 3.5 61.3% 1.63
Over 4.5 21.1% 4.74
Under 4.5 78.9% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 63.0% 1.59
No 37.0% 2.70

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 69.4% 1.44
Arsenal / Manchester City 75.5% 1.33
Draw / Manchester City 55.2% 1.81

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
5.4
4.2
2.0
0.7
0.2
1
6.8
11.1
7.4
3.5
1.2
0.3
2
6.5
9.1
6.5
3.0
1.1
0.3
3
3.8
5.3
3.7
1.8
0.6
0.2
4
1.6
2.3
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
5
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.