Skip to content
Saturday 15 April 2017, 19:30 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
31% 28% 41%
Home win
31.2%
Draw
27.9%
Away win
40.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 31.2% 3.20
Draw 27.9% 3.58
Manchester City 40.9% 2.45

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.6% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.4% 11.87
Over 1.5 73.4% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.6% 3.76
Over 2.5 47.3% 2.11
Under 2.5 52.7% 1.90
Over 3.5 25.7% 3.89
Under 3.5 74.3% 1.35
Over 4.5 11.8% 8.47
Under 4.5 88.2% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.7% 1.90
No 47.3% 2.12

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 59.1% 1.69
Southampton / Manchester City 72.1% 1.39
Draw / Manchester City 68.8% 1.45

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.4
9.9
7.4
3.4
1.2
0.3
1
8.3
13.3
8.7
4.0
1.4
0.4
2
5.4
7.4
5.1
2.4
0.8
0.2
3
2.1
2.9
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
4
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.