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Saturday 16 September 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
16% 21% 63%
Home win
15.9%
Draw
21.5%
Away win
62.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 15.9% 6.29
Draw 21.5% 4.66
Manchester City 62.6% 1.60

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.6% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.4% 18.56
Over 1.5 81.2% 1.23
Under 1.5 18.8% 5.31
Over 2.5 58.4% 1.71
Under 2.5 41.6% 2.41
Over 3.5 36.0% 2.78
Under 3.5 64.0% 1.56
Over 4.5 19.0% 5.25
Under 4.5 81.0% 1.24

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.4% 1.84
No 45.6% 2.19

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 37.4% 2.68
Watford / Manchester City 78.5% 1.27
Draw / Manchester City 84.1% 1.19

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.4
9.4
10.4
7.2
3.7
1.6
1
4.0
10.1
9.9
6.9
3.6
1.5
2
2.2
4.6
4.7
3.3
1.7
0.7
3
0.7
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.2
4
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.