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Saturday 30 September 2017, 19:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
45% 25% 29%
Home win
45.5%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
29.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 45.5% 2.20
Draw 25.3% 3.95
Manchester City 29.2% 3.43

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.2% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.8% 17.18
Over 1.5 80.2% 1.25
Under 1.5 19.8% 5.06
Over 2.5 56.9% 1.76
Under 2.5 43.1% 2.32
Over 3.5 34.5% 2.90
Under 3.5 65.5% 1.53
Over 4.5 17.9% 5.59
Under 4.5 82.1% 1.22

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.6% 1.68
No 40.4% 2.48

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 70.8% 1.41
Chelsea / Manchester City 74.7% 1.34
Draw / Manchester City 54.5% 1.83

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.8
6.0
4.3
1.9
0.6
0.2
1
7.9
11.8
7.2
3.1
1.0
0.3
2
7.2
9.3
6.0
2.6
0.8
0.2
3
4.0
5.2
3.4
1.5
0.5
0.1
4
1.7
2.2
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
5
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.