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Sunday 5 November 2017, 16:15 Etihad Stadium Full time
63% 20% 17%
Home win
63.3%
Draw
19.6%
Away win
17.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 63.3% 1.58
Draw 19.6% 5.09
Arsenal 17.1% 5.87

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.6% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.4% 29.19
Over 1.5 87.2% 1.15
Under 1.5 12.8% 7.80
Over 2.5 68.4% 1.46
Under 2.5 31.6% 3.17
Over 3.5 46.9% 2.13
Under 3.5 53.1% 1.88
Over 4.5 28.0% 3.58
Under 4.5 72.0% 1.39

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.9% 1.59
No 37.1% 2.70

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 83.0% 1.21
Manchester City / Arsenal 80.4% 1.24
Draw / Arsenal 36.7% 2.73

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.4
3.0
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.1
1
6.4
8.6
4.7
1.8
0.5
0.1
2
8.2
9.6
5.6
2.2
0.6
0.1
3
6.4
7.5
4.4
1.7
0.5
0.1
4
3.8
4.4
2.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
5
1.8
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.