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Sunday 1 October 2017, 14:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
62% 23% 15%
Home win
62.0%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
14.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 62.0% 1.61
Draw 23.2% 4.31
Brighton 14.8% 6.75

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.7% 13.05
Over 1.5 74.9% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.1% 3.98
Over 2.5 49.5% 2.02
Under 2.5 50.5% 1.98
Over 3.5 27.6% 3.63
Under 3.5 72.4% 1.38
Over 4.5 13.0% 7.68
Under 4.5 87.0% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.9% 2.13
No 53.1% 1.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 85.2% 1.17
Arsenal / Brighton 76.8% 1.30
Draw / Brighton 38.0% 2.63

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.7
5.0
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
12.5
11.0
4.1
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
12.2
9.7
3.8
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
7.5
6.0
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
3.5
2.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.