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Sunday 24 September 2017, 18:00 American Express Community Stadium Full time
Brighton
1–0
HT 0–0
Newcastle
29% 32% 39%
Home win
28.9%
Draw
32.0%
Away win
39.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Brighton 28.9% 3.46 — —
Draw 32.0% 3.12 — —
Newcastle 39.1% 2.56 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.0% 1.16 — —
Under 0.5 14.0% 7.15 — —
Over 1.5 60.9% 1.64 — —
Under 1.5 39.1% 2.56 — —
Over 2.5 33.0% 3.03 — —
Under 2.5 67.0% 1.49 — —
Over 3.5 14.8% 6.78 — —
Under 3.5 85.2% 1.17 — —
Over 4.5 5.5% 18.17 — —
Under 4.5 94.5% 1.06 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.0% 2.44 — —
No 59.0% 1.70 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Brighton / Draw 60.9% 1.64 — —
Brighton / Newcastle 68.0% 1.47 — —
Draw / Newcastle 71.1% 1.41 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.0
13.9
8.1
3.0
0.8
0.2
1
11.3
14.2
7.4
2.8
0.8
0.2
2
5.5
6.1
3.4
1.3
0.4
0.1
3
1.7
1.9
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Newcastle goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Brighton
L L D W L
Newcastle
L L W W W

Head to head

May 2026 Newcastle 3-1 Brighton Oct 2025 Brighton 2-1 Newcastle May 2025 Brighton 1-1 Newcastle Oct 2024 Newcastle 0-1 Brighton May 2024 Newcastle 1-1 Brighton Sep 2023 Brighton 3-1 Newcastle

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.