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Saturday 10 November 2018, 17:00 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton Full time
41% 29% 30%
Home win
41.3%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
29.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 41.3% 2.42
Draw 29.1% 3.44
Watford 29.6% 3.38

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.0% 1.11
Under 0.5 10.0% 10.01
Over 1.5 69.6% 1.44
Under 1.5 30.4% 3.29
Over 2.5 42.6% 2.35
Under 2.5 57.4% 1.74
Over 3.5 21.8% 4.58
Under 3.5 78.2% 1.28
Over 4.5 9.4% 10.64
Under 4.5 90.6% 1.10

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.9% 2.05
No 51.1% 1.96

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 70.4% 1.42
Southampton / Watford 70.9% 1.41
Draw / Watford 58.7% 1.70

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.0
9.1
5.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
1
11.3
13.7
6.9
2.5
0.7
0.1
2
7.9
8.5
4.6
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
3.5
3.7
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.