Sunday 4 November 2018, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
84%
12%
4%
Home win
83.9%
Draw
11.9%
Away win
4.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.9% | 8.37 | — | — |
| Southampton | 4.2% | 24.08 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.2% | 23.94 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.1% | 6.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.9% | 4.36 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 37.2% | 2.69 | — | — |
| No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Southampton | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 16.1% | 6.21 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.2
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.3
|
5.6
|
1.3
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.6
|
7.3
|
1.8
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
13.4
|
6.7
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
9.3
|
4.6
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
5.1
|
2.6
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2025
Southampton
0-0
Manchester City
Oct 2024
Manchester City
1-0
Southampton
Apr 2023
Southampton
1-4
Manchester City
Oct 2022
Manchester City
4-0
Southampton
Jan 2022
Southampton
1-1
Manchester City
Sep 2021
Manchester City
0-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.