Saturday 20 October 2018, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
80%
14%
6%
Home win
80.1%
Draw
14.3%
Away win
5.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Draw | 14.3% | 7.00 | — | — |
| Burnley | 5.6% | 17.80 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.9% | 20.29 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.49 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.0% | 5.00 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Burnley | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 19.9% | 5.03 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.9
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
11.2
|
6.7
|
1.8
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.7
|
8.1
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.4
|
6.8
|
1.9
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.9
|
4.3
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.0
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Burnley
0-1
Manchester City
Sep 2025
Manchester City
5-1
Burnley
Jan 2024
Manchester City
3-1
Burnley
Aug 2023
Burnley
0-3
Manchester City
Apr 2022
Burnley
0-2
Manchester City
Oct 2021
Manchester City
2-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.