Saturday 1 September 2018, 19:30
Etihad Stadium
Full time
78%
15%
7%
Home win
78.4%
Draw
15.1%
Away win
6.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 78.4% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Draw | 15.1% | 6.64 | — | — |
| Newcastle | 6.5% | 15.37 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.9% | 20.55 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 17.9% | 5.58 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.3% | 4.91 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
| No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 93.5% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Newcastle | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Draw / Newcastle | 21.6% | 4.64 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.9
|
2.3
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.8
|
7.2
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.0
|
8.5
|
2.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.7
|
7.1
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.3
|
4.4
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.7
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Manchester City
2-1
Newcastle
Nov 2025
Newcastle
2-1
Manchester City
Feb 2025
Manchester City
4-0
Newcastle
Sep 2024
Newcastle
1-1
Manchester City
Jan 2024
Newcastle
2-3
Manchester City
Aug 2023
Manchester City
1-0
Newcastle
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.