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Sunday 13 May 2018, 17:00 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
12% 20% 67%
Home win
12.5%
Draw
20.2%
Away win
67.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 12.5% 8.02
Draw 20.2% 4.96
Manchester City 67.4% 1.48

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.3% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.7% 17.45
Over 1.5 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 20.0% 5.00
Over 2.5 56.8% 1.76
Under 2.5 43.2% 2.31
Over 3.5 34.4% 2.91
Under 3.5 65.6% 1.52
Over 4.5 17.8% 5.62
Under 4.5 82.2% 1.22

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.8% 2.01
No 50.2% 1.99

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 32.6% 3.07
Southampton / Manchester City 79.8% 1.25
Draw / Manchester City 87.5% 1.14

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.7
10.6
11.9
8.5
4.6
2.0
1
3.7
9.6
9.7
6.9
3.7
1.6
2
1.7
3.7
4.0
2.8
1.5
0.7
3
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.