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Sunday 26 August 2018, 18:00 St James' Park Full time
1–2
HT 0–0
24% 29% 47%
Home win
23.9%
Draw
28.7%
Away win
47.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Newcastle 23.9% 4.19
Draw 28.7% 3.48
Chelsea 47.4% 2.11

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.4% 1.12
Under 0.5 10.6% 9.41
Over 1.5 68.1% 1.47
Under 1.5 32.0% 3.13
Over 2.5 40.8% 2.45
Under 2.5 59.2% 1.69
Over 3.5 20.4% 4.90
Under 3.5 79.6% 1.26
Over 4.5 8.6% 11.67
Under 4.5 91.4% 1.09

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.0% 2.18
No 54.0% 1.85

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Newcastle / Draw 52.6% 1.90
Newcastle / Chelsea 71.3% 1.40
Draw / Chelsea 76.1% 1.31

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.6
13.0
9.7
4.5
1.6
0.4
1
8.3
13.4
8.9
4.1
1.4
0.4
2
4.1
5.8
4.1
1.9
0.7
0.2
3
1.3
1.8
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Newcastle goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.