Sunday 13 May 2018, 17:00
St James' Park
Full time
21%
28%
50%
Home win
21.4%
Draw
28.4%
Away win
50.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 21.4% | 4.67 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.4% | 3.52 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.0% | 9.12 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.7% | 5.08 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.1% | 12.27 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.9% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Chelsea | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.0
|
13.9
|
10.5
|
5.0
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
| 1 |
7.9
|
13.2
|
8.9
|
4.3
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
3.7
|
5.2
|
3.8
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.0
|
1.5
|
1.1
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Chelsea
0-1
Newcastle
Dec 2025
Newcastle
2-2
Chelsea
May 2025
Newcastle
2-0
Chelsea
Oct 2024
Chelsea
2-1
Newcastle
Mar 2024
Chelsea
3-2
Newcastle
Nov 2023
Newcastle
4-1
Chelsea
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.