Sunday 12 August 2018, 18:00
Emirates Stadium
Full time
28%
23%
49%
Home win
28.3%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
48.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 28.3% | 3.54 | — | — |
| Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | — | — |
| Manchester City | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.2% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.8% | 26.55 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 13.7% | 7.30 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| No | 33.2% | 3.01 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Manchester City | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Manchester City | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.8
|
5.8
|
6.2
|
4.1
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
| 1 |
4.2
|
9.8
|
9.2
|
6.0
|
3.0
|
1.2
|
| 2 |
3.5
|
6.8
|
6.7
|
4.4
|
2.2
|
0.9
|
| 3 |
1.7
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
2.2
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
| 4 |
0.6
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Manchester City
2-1
Arsenal
Sep 2025
Arsenal
1-1
Manchester City
Feb 2025
Arsenal
5-1
Manchester City
Sep 2024
Manchester City
2-2
Arsenal
Mar 2024
Manchester City
0-0
Arsenal
Oct 2023
Arsenal
1-0
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.