Saturday 29 September 2018, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
84%
11%
4%
Home win
84.3%
Draw
11.3%
Away win
4.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.3% | 8.87 | — | — |
| Brighton | 4.4% | 22.75 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.7% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.3% | 30.43 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 13.2% | 7.60 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | 3.14 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 95.6% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Brighton | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Brighton | 15.7% | 6.38 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.3
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
8.4
|
5.4
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.8
|
7.4
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.5
|
7.3
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
9.2
|
5.3
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
5.4
|
3.1
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Manchester City
1-1
Brighton
Aug 2025
Brighton
2-1
Manchester City
Mar 2025
Manchester City
2-2
Brighton
Nov 2024
Brighton
2-1
Manchester City
Apr 2024
Brighton
0-4
Manchester City
Oct 2023
Manchester City
2-1
Brighton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.