Monday 17 September 2018, 22:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
44%
31%
25%
Home win
43.5%
Draw
31.2%
Away win
25.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.2% | 3.21 | — | — |
| Brighton | 25.3% | 3.95 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.6% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.4% | 7.44 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 34.2% | 2.93 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 15.5% | 6.44 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.9% | 16.95 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.1% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Southampton / Brighton | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / Brighton | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.4
|
10.0
|
4.6
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.5
|
13.9
|
5.6
|
1.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.3
|
7.9
|
3.4
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.7
|
3.2
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Southampton
0-4
Brighton
Nov 2024
Brighton
1-1
Southampton
May 2023
Brighton
3-1
Southampton
Dec 2022
Southampton
1-3
Brighton
Apr 2022
Brighton
2-2
Southampton
Dec 2021
Southampton
1-1
Brighton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.