Sunday 12 August 2018, 15:30
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
38%
33%
29%
Home win
38.5%
Draw
33.0%
Away win
28.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Draw | 33.0% | 3.03 | — | — |
| Burnley | 28.5% | 3.50 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 15.4% | 6.51 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 13.0% | 7.70 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.6% | 21.61 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.4% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
| No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Southampton / Burnley | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
15.4
|
11.9
|
5.5
|
1.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
14.6
|
14.2
|
5.8
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.1
|
7.1
|
3.1
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
2.9
|
2.5
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Burnley
2-0
Southampton
Oct 2021
Southampton
2-2
Burnley
Apr 2021
Southampton
3-2
Burnley
Sep 2020
Burnley
0-1
Southampton
Feb 2020
Southampton
1-2
Burnley
Aug 2019
Burnley
3-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.