Skip to content
Saturday 18 August 2018, 17:00 Goodison Park Full time
52% 27% 21%
Home win
51.7%
Draw
27.2%
Away win
21.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton 51.7% 1.93
Draw 27.2% 3.68
Southampton 21.1% 4.74

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.4% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.6% 10.44
Over 1.5 70.4% 1.42
Under 1.5 29.6% 3.38
Over 2.5 43.7% 2.29
Under 2.5 56.3% 1.78
Over 3.5 22.6% 4.42
Under 3.5 77.4% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.9% 10.11
Under 4.5 90.1% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.9% 2.13
No 53.1% 1.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton / Draw 78.9% 1.27
Everton / Southampton 72.8% 1.37
Draw / Southampton 48.3% 2.07

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.6
7.1
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
12.9
12.8
5.4
1.6
0.4
0.1
2
10.4
9.3
4.1
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
5.3
4.7
2.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
2.1
1.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.