Skip to content
Saturday 22 September 2018, 17:00 Cardiff City Stadium Full time
8% 17% 75%
Home win
8.2%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
75.3%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cardiff 8.2% 12.22
Draw 16.6% 6.04
Manchester City 75.3% 1.33

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.0% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.0% 20.14
Over 1.5 81.9% 1.22
Under 1.5 18.1% 5.54
Over 2.5 59.8% 1.67
Under 2.5 40.2% 2.49
Over 3.5 37.4% 2.67
Under 3.5 62.6% 1.60
Over 4.5 20.1% 4.97
Under 4.5 79.9% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.5% 2.20
No 54.5% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cardiff / Draw 24.7% 4.04
Cardiff / Manchester City 83.4% 1.20
Draw / Manchester City 91.8% 1.09

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.0
10.5
13.2
10.6
6.4
3.1
1
2.6
7.9
9.0
7.2
4.4
2.1
2
1.1
2.5
3.1
2.5
1.5
0.7
3
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.2
4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.