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Sunday 2 September 2018, 15:30 Cardiff City Stadium Full time
2–3
HT 1–1
21% 29% 50%
Home win
20.9%
Draw
29.0%
Away win
50.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cardiff 20.9% 4.77
Draw 29.0% 3.45
Arsenal 50.1% 2.00

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.2% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.8% 8.47
Over 1.5 65.3% 1.53
Under 1.5 34.7% 2.89
Over 2.5 37.8% 2.65
Under 2.5 62.2% 1.61
Over 3.5 18.1% 5.52
Under 3.5 81.9% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.3% 13.75
Under 4.5 92.7% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 42.4% 2.36
No 57.6% 1.74

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cardiff / Draw 49.9% 2.00
Cardiff / Arsenal 71.0% 1.41
Draw / Arsenal 79.1% 1.27

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.8
14.7
10.8
5.0
1.7
0.5
1
8.2
13.2
8.7
4.0
1.4
0.4
2
3.6
5.0
3.5
1.6
0.6
0.2
3
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.0
4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.