Skip to content
Saturday 15 September 2018, 17:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
4–1
HT 2–1
73% 19% 8%
Home win
72.9%
Draw
18.8%
Away win
8.2%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 72.9% 1.37
Draw 18.8% 5.31
Cardiff 8.2% 12.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.2% 13.80
Over 1.5 75.5% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.5% 4.09
Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98
Under 2.5 49.5% 2.02
Over 3.5 28.5% 3.51
Under 3.5 71.5% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.6% 7.33
Under 4.5 86.4% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 38.9% 2.57
No 61.1% 1.64

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 91.8% 1.09
Chelsea / Cardiff 81.2% 1.23
Draw / Cardiff 27.1% 3.69

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.2
3.4
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
13.8
8.7
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
15.2
8.7
2.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
10.7
6.2
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
5.7
3.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.