Sunday 7 October 2018, 16:15
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
20%
27%
54%
Home win
19.8%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
53.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 19.8% | 5.04 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.7% | 3.75 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.4% | 10.65 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 23.0% | 4.34 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.1% | 9.86 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
| No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Southampton / Chelsea | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.4
|
13.0
|
10.8
|
5.7
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
| 1 |
6.8
|
12.6
|
9.4
|
4.9
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 2 |
3.2
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
0.9
|
1.5
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Chelsea
4-0
Southampton
Dec 2024
Southampton
1-5
Chelsea
Feb 2023
Chelsea
0-1
Southampton
Aug 2022
Southampton
2-1
Chelsea
Apr 2022
Southampton
0-6
Chelsea
Oct 2021
Chelsea
3-1
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.