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Saturday 29 September 2018, 19:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
1–1
HT 1–0
41% 27% 33%
Home win
40.6%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
32.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 40.6% 2.46
Draw 26.7% 3.75
Liverpool 32.7% 3.06

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.1% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.9% 14.47
Over 1.5 77.3% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.7% 4.40
Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90
Under 2.5 47.4% 2.11
Over 3.5 30.4% 3.29
Under 3.5 69.6% 1.44
Over 4.5 14.9% 6.69
Under 4.5 85.1% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.9% 1.76
No 43.1% 2.32

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 67.3% 1.49
Chelsea / Liverpool 73.3% 1.36
Draw / Liverpool 59.4% 1.68

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.9
7.4
5.3
2.3
0.7
0.2
1
8.4
12.7
7.8
3.4
1.1
0.3
2
6.8
8.8
5.7
2.5
0.8
0.2
3
3.3
4.3
2.8
1.2
0.4
0.1
4
1.2
1.6
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.