Saturday 3 November 2018, 17:00
St James' Park
Full time
45%
30%
26%
Home win
44.6%
Draw
29.6%
Away win
25.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
| Watford | 25.8% | 3.87 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.3% | 8.88 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.2% | 5.22 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.9% | 12.71 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
| No | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Watford | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.3
|
9.1
|
4.6
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
13.0
|
13.7
|
6.1
|
1.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.1
|
8.5
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
4.0
|
3.7
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.3
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2022
Newcastle
1-1
Watford
Sep 2021
Watford
1-1
Newcastle
Jul 2020
Watford
2-1
Newcastle
Aug 2019
Newcastle
1-1
Watford
Dec 2018
Watford
1-1
Newcastle
May 2018
Watford
2-1
Newcastle
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.