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Saturday 6 October 2018, 19:30 Old Trafford Full time
61% 26% 13%
Home win
61.4%
Draw
25.9%
Away win
12.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United 61.4% 1.63
Draw 25.9% 3.86
Newcastle 12.7% 7.87

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.0% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.0% 8.32
Over 1.5 64.5% 1.55
Under 1.5 35.5% 2.82
Over 2.5 37.0% 2.70
Under 2.5 63.0% 1.59
Over 3.5 17.5% 5.71
Under 3.5 82.5% 1.21
Over 4.5 7.0% 14.38
Under 4.5 93.0% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 35.8% 2.80
No 64.2% 1.56

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United / Draw 87.3% 1.15
Manchester United / Newcastle 74.1% 1.35
Draw / Newcastle 38.6% 2.59

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.0
6.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
17.5
11.2
3.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
14.4
8.4
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
7.6
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
3.0
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Newcastle goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.