Wednesday 31 January 2018, 21:45
St James' Park
Full time
35%
35%
31%
Home win
34.6%
Draw
34.8%
Away win
30.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 34.6% | 2.89 | — | — |
| Draw | 34.8% | 2.88 | — | — |
| Burnley | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 17.8% | 5.62 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 26.2% | 3.82 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 10.4% | 9.59 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 89.6% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 3.4% | 29.04 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 96.6% | 1.04 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.3% | 2.83 | — | — |
| No | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Burnley | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
17.8
|
13.6
|
6.1
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
14.9
|
14.1
|
5.7
|
1.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
7.2
|
6.1
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
2.2
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Dec 2025
Burnley
1-3
Newcastle
Dec 2025
Newcastle
2-1
Burnley
May 2024
Burnley
1-4
Newcastle
Sep 2023
Newcastle
2-0
Burnley
May 2022
Burnley
1-2
Newcastle
Dec 2021
Newcastle
1-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.