Monday 1 January 2018, 17:00
Turf Moor
Full time
22%
28%
50%
Home win
22.3%
Draw
27.6%
Away win
50.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 22.3% | 4.48 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.6% | 3.63 | — | — |
| Liverpool | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.36 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 3.36 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.8% | 10.20 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
| No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Burnley / Liverpool | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / Liverpool | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
12.6
|
10.0
|
5.0
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 1 |
7.4
|
13.0
|
9.2
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
3.8
|
5.6
|
4.2
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.1
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Liverpool
1-1
Burnley
Sep 2025
Burnley
0-1
Liverpool
Feb 2024
Liverpool
3-1
Burnley
Dec 2023
Burnley
0-2
Liverpool
Feb 2022
Burnley
0-1
Liverpool
Aug 2021
Liverpool
2-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.