Saturday 3 February 2018, 14:30
Turf Moor
Full time
15%
25%
60%
Home win
15.0%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
60.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 15.0% | 6.66 | — | — |
| Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | — | — |
| Manchester City | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.1% | 11.04 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 23.7% | 4.21 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.6% | 9.46 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
| Burnley / Manchester City | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw / Manchester City | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.1
|
13.9
|
12.6
|
7.3
|
3.2
|
1.1
|
| 1 |
5.6
|
11.5
|
9.4
|
5.4
|
2.3
|
0.8
|
| 2 |
2.3
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
0.6
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Burnley
0-1
Manchester City
Sep 2025
Manchester City
5-1
Burnley
Jan 2024
Manchester City
3-1
Burnley
Aug 2023
Burnley
0-3
Manchester City
Apr 2022
Burnley
0-2
Manchester City
Oct 2021
Manchester City
2-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.