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Saturday 3 February 2018, 14:30 Turf Moor Full time
15% 25% 60%
Home win
15.0%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
60.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley 15.0% 6.66
Draw 24.6% 4.07
Manchester City 60.4% 1.66

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.9% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.1% 11.04
Over 1.5 71.4% 1.40
Under 1.5 28.6% 3.50
Over 2.5 45.0% 2.22
Under 2.5 55.0% 1.82
Over 3.5 23.7% 4.21
Under 3.5 76.3% 1.31
Over 4.5 10.6% 9.46
Under 4.5 89.4% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.8% 2.28
No 56.2% 1.78

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley / Draw 39.6% 2.53
Burnley / Manchester City 75.4% 1.33
Draw / Manchester City 85.0% 1.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.1
13.9
12.6
7.3
3.2
1.1
1
5.6
11.5
9.4
5.4
2.3
0.8
2
2.3
4.0
3.5
2.0
0.9
0.3
3
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.