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Friday 12 May 2017, 21:45 Goodison Park Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
72% 18% 10%
Home win
71.5%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
10.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton 71.5% 1.40
Draw 18.2% 5.50
Watford 10.3% 9.74

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.9% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.1% 19.60
Over 1.5 81.7% 1.22
Under 1.5 18.3% 5.46
Over 2.5 59.4% 1.68
Under 2.5 40.6% 2.46
Over 3.5 37.0% 2.70
Under 3.5 63.0% 1.59
Over 4.5 19.8% 5.06
Under 4.5 80.2% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.8% 2.05
No 51.2% 1.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton / Draw 89.7% 1.11
Everton / Watford 81.8% 1.22
Draw / Watford 28.5% 3.51

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.1
3.1
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
10.2
8.7
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
12.3
9.4
3.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
9.5
7.3
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
5.5
4.2
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
2.5
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.