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Monday 1 May 2017, 22:00 Vicarage Road Full time
0–1
HT 0–1
22% 23% 55%
Home win
21.9%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
55.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 21.9% 4.56
Draw 23.0% 4.35
Liverpool 55.1% 1.81

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.46
Over 1.5 82.8% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.2% 5.81
Over 2.5 60.9% 1.64
Under 2.5 39.1% 2.56
Over 3.5 38.6% 2.59
Under 3.5 61.4% 1.63
Over 4.5 21.0% 4.75
Under 4.5 79.0% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.2% 1.66
No 39.8% 2.51

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 44.9% 2.23
Watford / Liverpool 77.0% 1.30
Draw / Liverpool 78.1% 1.28

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
7.9
8.3
5.5
2.7
1.1
1
4.5
10.6
9.8
6.4
3.2
1.2
2
3.0
5.9
5.8
3.8
1.9
0.7
3
1.2
2.3
2.3
1.5
0.7
0.3
4
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.