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Saturday 21 October 2017, 14:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
4–2
HT 1–1
81% 13% 6%
Home win
80.6%
Draw
13.0%
Away win
6.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 80.6% 1.24
Draw 13.0% 7.66
Watford 6.4% 15.68

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.9% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.1% 31.80
Over 1.5 87.5% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.5% 8.03
Over 2.5 69.3% 1.44
Under 2.5 30.7% 3.26
Over 3.5 48.0% 2.08
Under 3.5 52.0% 1.92
Over 4.5 28.9% 3.46
Under 4.5 71.1% 1.41

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.9% 2.04
No 51.1% 1.96

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 93.6% 1.07
Chelsea / Watford 87.0% 1.15
Draw / Watford 19.4% 5.15

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.1
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
7.6
6.1
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
11.4
8.2
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
10.8
7.8
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
7.7
5.6
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
4.4
3.2
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.